Expert Analysis on a recent situation around Bitcoin
Bitcoin started to surprise traders with recent impulsive pullbacks. Since the March of 2020, it was in an uptrend, with pullbacks and big impulsive moves. Despite the recent ups and downs Bitcoin, still has first place in the cryptocurrency market.
Let’s take a look closer at the coin from March of 2020 till May of 2021.
The price for one Bitcoin in November 2020 was 18,353 dollars. In a year from that, the price hit the mark of 44 000 dollars. And the tendency seems to continue in that direction, and soaring of price is inevitable. Then, from November to January 6 2021, the price move to 41,528 dollars. Then we saw pullbacks, but the situation was stable.
In the middle of May, we see a downtrend and extreme pullbacks. Now Bitcoin shows new lows in comparison to previous lows. Sentiment changed from bullish to bearish market. The situation around Bitcoin changing fast, and analytics don’t hurry to make predictions.
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There is a lot of hype news about this situation, and many buyers and sellers react.
Although some news from authoritative resources is surprising, they didn’t reflect the actual situation on the market and usually vague. If traders react to hype news, they start gambling and not predict the market.
Deep analysis of the charts and what happens next
Despite the fast changes in the crypto market, hourly charts can be a reason for action now, under certain circumstances. In a cryptocurrency market, hourly charts are one of the most valuable charts. Basing on the hourly charts, we can expect a good mood for Bitcoin in a place of 50p. (EMA), Expedition Moving Average.
If thy cryptocurrency does not go to a downtrend, the 50p. EMA is the best position for starting to buy again. It is the best time for purchasing a few Bitcoins, but not much. When you ensure the uptrend is settled, you can buy more. On average, 50p.(EMA) is about 50 000 – 52 000 dollars per coin. If you do it on this point and buy a few coins, you do not lose all your money.
However, if Bitcoin continues to be in a downtrend, experts predicted, it will be no less than 41 000 – 43 000 dollars per coin. On that point, it should show a double bottom pattern and start to rising again. On this point, Bitcoin should become an uptrend again, and a bull market occurs.
Both uptrend and downtrend scenarios can occur. Expectations, in the case of the bear pattern, that price will do not drop lower than 40 000 and 42 000 dollars. If it reaches that point, Bitcoin is likely to show an uptrend and hit previous success. In the case of uptrend today, it can shoot up right now; you never know.
However, this is a curious situation in many cases. And many traders are wondering how this could happen. How coin could show an impulsive growth from the previous year and now show a downtrend with excessive pullbacks and impulsive moves.
Let’s try to analyze it.
Tweets of Elon Musk and influence on prices of Bitcoin
In February, Tesla announced that it bought 1.5 billion worth of bitcoin. It also began to accept cryptocurrency as payment for Tesla vehicles in March 2021. After that decision, the price of the coin immediately raised by 20%. But, then the situation is changed. Elon Musk turns his policy on Bitcoin, and it affected significantly on the crypto market. First unpleasant tweet in bitcoin direction, drop his price to 12%.
One of the reasons is the latest tweet of Elon Musk. He claimed that Bitcoin is a highly potential currency, but the cost is too high. “We are concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for Bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal, which has the worst emissions of any fuel,” Mr Musk wrote.
“Cryptocurrency is a good idea… but this cannot come at great cost to the environment.”
He also said the electric carmaker would not sell any of its Bitcoins and intends to use it for transactions as soon as mining shifts to using more sustainable energy.
When miners launched their computers to produce more cryptocurrencies, it caused generating more electricity in every developed country.
And as a result, we have more production of electricity, that using fossil fuel. For Elon Musk, such consumption of electricity only, compare with using fossil fuel in an entire country, such as Shri-Lanka. In the opinion of Elon Musk, it caused too much damage if Bitcoin will continue to be on an uptrend. Instead of this, he proposes to turn to a Dogecoin.
The tweets of Elon Musk are powerful and always caused stock market ups and downs. We already saw how it works with shares of CD Project Red, Dogecoin, and now Bitcoin.
SEC begins the investigation of the situation around Bitcoin
The other possible reason for the downtrend of Bitcoin is that Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) has brought 75 enforcement actions against companies in the crypto industry.
SEC released a public statement from May 11, titled “Staff Statement on Fund Registered Under the Investment Company Act Investing in the Bitcoin Futures Market”, where the institution announced they would ramp up vigilance for funds that have invested in BTC Futures Markets as part of their speculative strategies to maximize profit. The main purpose of this statement is next.
The situation around Bitcoin and SEC was represented by Gary Gensler, the chairman of the SEC. The main point is that investors have the right to have protection from the government in the case of investing in crypto.
These days, there is no official regulations or restriction for Bitcoin or any other crypto. All of the investors should be advised about the high risk of money lost.
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What happens next?
Some of the investors have great concerns about the SEC statement, and it also caused pullbacks. For now, the situation around Bitcoin is unclear, and we can only guess what happens in a week. Basing on technical analysis of the market, we can build possible predictions, but we’re not magicians with a crystal ball.
The experts said that Bitcoin couldn’t drop down to zero at this point.
But the situation will be resolved soon, and Bitcoin takes it consolidation pattern again, whether his price will higher or lower. We haven’t clear insider information to predict that Bitcoin will go to zero or rise tenfold. And nobody has such kind of information and never will.
Until then, we keep tracking the situation and will inform you about significant changes.
This latest analysis shows cornerstones and capstones around the recent ups and downs of Bitcoin prices.